The upcoming Maharashtra Elections 2024, set for November 20, 2024, have attracted significant attention due to complex seat-sharing issues and political maneuvering in both the ruling Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) fronts. Both alliances have faced setbacks and intense internal discussions as they attempt to finalize seat allocations, which has led to a lack of clarity on the exact electoral positioning for key constituencies across the state.
The Ruling Mahayuti Alliance’s Seat-Sharing Strategy
The Mahayuti coalition, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and a few smaller allies, is facing its own challenges in distributing the 288 assembly seats among its members. The BJP initially announced plans to contest 150 seats, but this number was later revised to 146, leaving four seats for smaller parties like the Yuva Swabhiman Party, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, Republican Party of India (Athavale), and Jan Surajya Shakti Paksha.
However, the BJP’s coalition partners, particularly Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde faction and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, also have significant demands. The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) has currently been allocated 138 seats and has given two of these seats to minor allies, the Jan Suraj Party and Rajashri Shahuprakash Aghadi.
This week, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) added more candidates to its list, including Shaina NC for Mumbadevi and Amol Khatal for Sangamner, bringing its candidate count to 80. The remaining seats left to Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP are 58, of which 51 candidates have already been announced.
These last-minute adjustments indicate a degree of strategic flexibility within the ruling alliance, but they also reveal underlying strains. Internal discussions are reportedly ongoing within the BJP to ensure that each faction feels represented and that the alliance presents a united front to voters.
Challenges Within the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), composed of the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction, or UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has struggled with its own internal negotiations. Initially, the MVA proposed an “85-85-85” formula, suggesting that each of the three main parties would contest an equal number of seats, leaving 33 seats for adjustments. However, the allocation process has been anything but smooth, as disagreements over certain constituencies have prolonged discussions, particularly in contested areas where multiple factions within the alliance have a strong presence.
On October 21, Congress leader Nana Patole expressed confidence that the MVA would resolve these issues in the next couple of days. He mentioned that about 96 seats were close to being finalized, but some areas in Vidarbha and western Maharashtra required further negotiation. Congress intends to meet with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar to settle the last 16 constituencies in question.
A significant issue within the MVA has been the expectation from Congress to lead the alliance, given its historical voter base in Maharashtra, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP factions each want substantial representation due to their established political networks in key regions. According to Vijay Wadettiwar of Congress, the final allocation of all 288 seats is expected to conclude soon. However, he acknowledged that the tripartite alliance’s seat-sharing plan was complicated by the need to secure consensus on multiple fronts.
Minor Parties and Independents Add Complexity
Both the Mahayuti and MVA alliances have faced challenges from smaller parties and independent candidates. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), for instance, recently announced it would contest the elections independently, adding another layer of competition. The MNS had previously sought alliances with both the BJP and Shiv Sena but ultimately decided to pursue its own voter base without external support. While MNS is not expected to win a large number of seats, it could act as a “vote-splitter” in closely contested regions, affecting outcomes in favor of either Mahayuti or MVA.
Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, has shown interest in forming an alliance with MVA but has so far been sidelined, pending further negotiations. Although this has caused tension among potential allies, the MVA is still attempting to reach a resolution that would allow the Samajwadi Party to join them for a unified front. If this happens, it could bring an additional 2-4 seats into the MVA fold, increasing its reach in critical constituencies.
Allegations of Electoral Manipulation and Political Rhetoric
Beyond seat-sharing, the election has also been marked by accusations of voter list tampering and manipulation, which have been levelled primarily by opposition leaders. Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut and Congress leader Nana Patole alleged that the BJP manipulated voter lists across 150 constituencies where it is set to contest. They claimed that names were added to the lists illegally to gain an advantage. In response, BJP leaders dismissed these allegations as “baseless” and politically motivated.
This rhetoric is indicative of the high-stakes political climate surrounding the Maharashtra Assembly elections. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, during a rally, criticized the BJP’s governance record, especially concerning agrarian distress in Maharashtra. He claimed that the BJP was the “biggest enemy” of farmers and highlighted high suicide rates among farmers as evidence of policy failure. The BJP has countered these claims by promoting its development initiatives, aiming to reassure the electorate of its commitment to rural welfare and urban development .The Times of India.
Potential Impacts on Voter Sentiment
The outcome of these Maharashtra Elections 2024 is particularly significant given the political climate in Maharashtra, a state that has seen a resurgence in regionalism and identity politics. The shifting alliances, last-minute candidate nominations, and unresolved seat-sharing arrangements could lead to unpredictable voter behavior. In past elections, indecision or lack of cohesion in alliances has often swayed voters away from fragmented groups toward more stable parties. The BJP’s decision to lower its initial seat count could be a strategic move to appeal to smaller allies, thus potentially strengthening its base among Maharashtra’s rural and urban voters.
Meanwhile, the MVA’s internal wrangling could weaken its stance unless resolved decisively before Election Day. Political analysts argue that while the MVA presents itself as a united opposition front, these ongoing tensions may cast doubt on its ability to effectively govern if it wins.
Concluding Thoughts
The Maharashtra Assembly election of 2024 is shaping up to be a test of coalition politics, with both major alliances struggling to finalize their seat-sharing agreements. As the state heads into election season, the electorate is closely watching how these alliances handle their internal challenges. Any further delays or signs of discord may impact public confidence in these coalitions’ governance capabilities, which could benefit either independent parties or emerging political voices.
With less than a month to the elections for Maharashtra Elections 2024, both Mahayuti and MVA need to secure their internal alliances to present cohesive and stable political alternatives. The coming days will be crucial as they announce their final candidate lists and attempt to sway undecided voters ahead of the November 20 polls.
